Pharma India’s Growth Puzzle: Before Asking “Where Are We Going?”, Ask “Why Are We Here Today?”

Pharma India’s Growth Puzzle: Before Asking “Where Are We Going?”, Ask “Why Are We Here Today?”

I just went through the PharmaTrac report for May. A few observations came to mind.

1. Value growth continues to outpace volume growth

At the overall IPM level, MAT growth stands at 9.0% in value terms, while unit growth is just 0.9%.

One possible interpretation is that India is becoming a healthier nation and requiring fewer medicines. If that is indeed the case, nothing would make me happier.

However, there could be other explanations as well. Therefore, I would be cautious about drawing any conclusions based solely on one set of numbers.

2. The anti-diabetes segment presents an interesting picture

Over the past few years, GLP-1 agonists such as semaglutide and Mounjaro have received enormous attention. Naturally, one would expect this excitement to be reflected in market performance.

Yet the data throws up some interesting questions.

For the anti-diabetic segment, MAT growth stands at 13.1% in value terms, but only 2.6% in units. Looking at May alone, value growth accelerated to 16.8%, whereas unit growth moderated to 1.3%.

These numbers are intriguing and deserve deeper study.

At this stage, I would hesitate to arrive at any firm conclusions. I do not yet have the benefit of prescription audit data—which becomes available only once every four months—nor do I have access to internal company MIS data. Experience has taught me that a single data source rarely tells the whole story.

But one thing appears increasingly clear. The Indian pharmaceutical market is evolving. Old assumptions are being challenged, and brand builders may need to embrace newer principles of marketing, as discussed in The 2040 Pharma Marketing Doctrine: Rewriting the Rules of Brand Building in Indian Pharma.

After spending more than five decades in this industry, I have learned that numbers are important, but curiosity is even more important. Data should provoke questions before it provides answers.

Perhaps this is the time for a deeper dive. Before asking, “Where are we going?”, we may first understand “Why are we here today?”

That question calls for looking beyond a single report. We need to bring together multiple lenses—market data, prescription audits, internal MIS, field insights, patient behaviour, and even the changing economics of healthcare. Only then can we separate temporary fluctuations from structural shifts.

Because, in the end, the purpose of analysis is not merely to explain the past. It is to understand the present well enough to build brands that are ready for the future.